Nigeria's
pathway to achieve
carbon neutrality
by 2060
In Nigeria, desertification in the north, floods in the centre, pollution and erosion on the coast and the associated socio-economic consequences all allude to the reality and grave impacts of climate change. Consequently, bold action to limit the impacts of climate change must be undertaken urgently. At the same time, in light of rapidly rising population, accelerated development is needed to ensure improved living conditions for millions of Nigerians. The next couple of decades present a unique opportunity to merge these two priorities; economic development and climate action, and to achieve in Africa’s largest economy, one of the world’s first true just transitions.
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Reducing emissions and
powering development
At COP26, H.E. President Muhammadu Buhari announced Nigeria’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060
At COP26, Nigeria announced its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060.
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) was unveiled shortly after– highlighting the scale of effort required to achieve the 2060 net zero target whilst also meeting the nation’s energy needs.
Since the announcement, the Climate Change Act 2021 has been passed, the ETP has been fully approved by the Federal Government. The Energy Transition Office now supports the Federal Government of Nigeria in the implementation of the Energy Transition Plan.
My Example Heading
My Other Example Heading
My Example Heading
My Other Example Heading
Nigeria can be carbon neutral by 2060
65% of Nigeria’s Total emissions
Nigeria can be carbon neutral by 2060
65% of Nigeria’s Total emissions
42 MtCO2e
45 MtCO2e
2.3 MtCO2e
14 MtCO2e
- Agriculture (non-CO2)
- Waste (CO2 and non-CO2)
- Land-Use Change and Foresty (CO2)
- Industrial Process(non-CO2)
- Fugitive Emissions (CO2 and non-CO2)
- Energy (non-CO2)
Key insights
- 88.6 Mt CO2e come from energy-related emissions, with around 84% of from power and transport sectors alone.
- 535.6 Mt CO2e comes from non-CO2 energy-related and non-energy related emissions, mainly livestock, managed soils, fugitives, waste, and LUCF – out of scope of this plan.
- LULUCF emissions, composed of only CO2 emissions, have a strong linkage with deforestation due to biomass use for cooking in buildings.
- Non-CO2 emissions on energy sector are methane and nitrous oxide emitted from fuel combustion on transport, manufacturing and energy industries.
- Fugitive emissions, are mainly sourced from oil and gas activitie
Nigeria, which already grapples with its position among the ten most climate-vulnerable nations, faces an added burden of being a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
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Key ETP objectives
At the core of the plan are the following imperatives:
Poverty reduction
Lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty and driving economic growth
Modern
Energy access
Bring modern energy services to the full population
legislation
Streamline existing and new government related energy transition initiatives
job preservation
Manage the expected long-term job loss in the oil sector due to the reduced global fossil-fuel demand
Sustainable Transition
Play a leadership role for Africa by promoting a fair, inclusive and equitable energy transition in Africa that will include Gas as a “transitionary fuel”
Improved Energy access
Improved energy access for millions of Nigeria
Key Insights
Nigeria’s net-zero pathway will result in significant net job creation with up to 340k jobs created by 2030 and up to 840k jobs created by 2060 driven mainly by the Power, Cooking and Transport sectors.
Nigeria’s energy transition creates significant investment opportunities such as the establishment and expansion of industries related to solar energy, electric vehicles.
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Net job creation per sector
- oil
- power
- transport
- cooking
- gas
The ETP requires significant emission reductions in 5 key sectors
Power
Transition away from diesel/petrol generators (which account for bulk of current generation capacity)
Initial expansion of gas generation capacity to establish baseload capacity for meeting increased electricity demand and integrating renewables.
Ramp up of renewables-backed electrification to facilitatedecarbonization in sectors such as buildings (cooking),industry and transportation.
Power
Transition away from diesel/petrol generators (which account for bulk of current generation capacity)
Initial expansion of gas generation capacity to establish baseload capacity for meeting increased electricity demand and integrating renewables.
Ramp up of renewables-backed electrification to facilitatedecarbonization in sectors such as buildings (cooking),industry and transportation.
Power
Transition away from diesel/petrol generators (which account for bulk of current generation capacity)
Initial expansion of gas generation capacity to establish baseload capacity for meeting increased electricity demand and integrating renewables.
Ramp up of renewables-backed electrification to facilitatedecarbonization in sectors such as buildings (cooking),industry and transportation.
Power
Transition away from diesel/petrol generators (which account for bulk of current generation capacity)
Initial expansion of gas generation capacity to establish baseload capacity for meeting increased electricity demand and integrating renewables.
Ramp up of renewables-backed electrification to facilitatedecarbonization in sectors such as buildings (cooking),industry and transportation.
- power
- transport
- oil and gas
- cooking
- industry
Finance & INVESTEMETS
Incremental cost from BAU to Net Zero 2060, Bn USD
This figure covers counter acting dynamics:
Most of the effort will be needed in the power sector: extra CAPEX is needed to finance the power sector generation capacity ($270Bn), and the T&D infrastructure ($135Bn)
Incremental investments from 2021-60 to reach Net Zero 2060, Bn USD
Significant savings in terms of fuel costs for power considering the switch to 90% renewables (-$121 Bn) compensates for some of the CAPEX increases
Resources
Nigeria Integrated Energy Planning Tool
The Nigeria Integrated Energy Planning Tool is an online, interactive data visualization platform that brings together several layers of data to help Nigerian policy makers and practitioners make more informed decisions about their strategies and operations to advance energy access in the country.
Reports
ETP Data Stakeholders’ Engagement
In an era marked by increasing digitization, the generation and consumption of data has experienced exponential growth, impacting every sector.The Energy Transition Office (ETO) held its one-day Energy Transition Plan: Data Stakeholder Session at the Ogun-Nassarawa Hall, Transcorp Hilton, Maitama, Abuja, on Wednesday, the 19th day of July, 2023. The event featured stakeholders from different organizations relevant to the energy and data sector. The Energy Transition Office is the secretariat of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan and is resourced by Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) and Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP). The ETO works to support commitments made by Nigeria to attain Net-Zero Emissions by 2060. The Energy Transition Plan (ETP) represents the nation’s strategy, which primarily targets energy poverty and climate change and proposes to significantly lower carbon emissions across 5 key sectors: Power, Cooking, Transport, Industry and Oil & Gas by 2060. Accurate, sufficient, timely, accessible, and up-to-date data has been identified as vital, imperative, and non-negotiable in the achievement of the ETP’s objectives. However, the Nigerian narrative, fuelled
Partners
Achieving Nigeria’s climate ambitions and energy needs requires strong partnerships and coalitions. The Energy Transition Office is supported by the following partners.
