Industry
Cement as the largest industrial emitter has significant decarbonization potentialÂ
Total Cement Production – Mtpa
- coal
- biomass ccs
Key insights
- Coal dominates cement production until 2050, after which biomass CCS starts to significantly increase.
- Cement production is projected to increase steadily, with a growth rate of 2% per year.
- The transition from coal to biomass CCS signals a late but important move toward cleaner production methods.
- Biomass with CCS only takes off after 2050, indicating delayed but necessary adoption of carbon capture to meet emissions targets.
- Use of Calcinated clay for clinker process can reduce upto 50% of the emissions.
Underlying assumptions
- Sustained demand for cement due to infrastructure development, supporting a steady production growth.
- Delayed implementation of cleaner technologies: The assumption is that there will be little incentive or investment in clean technology until closer to mid-century.
- Technological breakthroughs in biomass CCS will become economically viable post-2050.
Hydrogen can drive future
steel production
Total Steel Production – Mtpa
- gas dri
- hydrogen dri
Key insights
- Gas DRI dominates steel production up to 2045, but Hydrogen DRI takes over after 2050.
- Steel production is projected to grow slowly, with an annual increase of 1%.
- The steel industry shifts toward hydrogen-based technologies to meet emissions targets post-2045.
- Gas DRI remains the primary method until hydrogen technologies mature.
Underlying assumptions
- Technological readiness of Hydrogen DRI will take decades, likely due to infrastructure and cost barriers.
- Steel demand remains high but transitions to more sustainable production methods over time.
- Gas DRI technologies will remain economically viable until hydrogen technologies become cost-competitive.
Ammonia/Chemicals
Total Energy Demand for Chemical Production – PJ
- gas
- hydrogen
Key insights
- Energy demand for chemical production is expected to grow significantly over the next decades.
- Gas remains the primary energy source for chemical production until hydrogen takes over post-2045.
- Hydrogen use increases significantly after 2045, signaling a shift to decarbonized chemical production.
- The switch to hydrogen will help decarbonize the chemical industry, aligning with emissions reduction targets.
Underlying assumptions
- Increased demand for chemicals driven by industrial and consumer needs globally.
- Delayed transition to hydrogen due to technological, infrastructure, and cost barriers in the chemical industry.
- Hydrogen infrastructure will become widely available and economically viable post-2045.
Other Industry – High
Temperature applications
Total energy demand for High Temperature applications – PJ
- hydrogen
- gas
- biomass
- biomass ccs
- oil
Key insights
- Energy demand for high-temperature industrial applications will grow steadily.
- The use of biomass and hydrogen increases post-2045, replacing gas and oil.
- By 2060, hydrogen will be the dominant energy source for high-temperature applications.
- Fossil fuels remain dominant until hydrogen becomes the leading energy source post-2055.
Underlying assumptions
- Increased industrial energy demand driven by economic growth and expanding industrial sectors.
- Biomass and hydrogen technologies will only become cost-effective and scalable post-2045.
- Fossil fuel reliance remains strong until alternative energy sources can compete on cost and availability.
Other Industry – Low Temperature applications
Total energy demand for Low Temperature applications – PJ
- oil
- gas
- biomass
- heat pump
Key insights
- Energy demand for low-temperature industrial processes is projected to increase steadily.
- Heat pumps and hydrogen become the primary energy sources for low-temperature applications, replacing biomass and fossil fuels.
- Fossil fuels are used less in favor of cleaner technologies like heat pumps and hydrogen.
- Significant changes in energy mix only happen post-2040.
Underlying assumptions
- Technological advancements in heat pumps and hydrogen will make them more cost-effective for low-temperature processes.
- Biomass and fossil fuels will remain competitive until renewable energy technologies mature.
- Steady energy demand growth for low-temperature applications in sectors like food processing and manufacturing.
barriers AND
Potential actions
cement
BArriers
- Calcined clay adoption for clinker production
- High upfront investment for improving process efficiency
- High captive power generation using fossil fuels assets
potiential actions
- Create incentive-based programs for cement producers to switch to calcined clay clinker substitution. For example, a technical standard in public procurement or projects.
- Support cement industries to undertake periodic energy audits and implement energy efficiency projects.
- Introduce national energy efficiency standards for boilers, motors and compressed air systems for easier adoption of such equipment in the industries.
- Incentivize captive power generation in cement industries.
- Supporting waste to heat energy projects for process heat applications.
- Demonstrating CCS projects in the cement industries with international cooperation.
Steel
BArriers
- Scrap steel-oriented industry profile
- Virgin steel is not produced
potiential actions
- Incentivize virgin steel production with green steel technologies
- Scrap steel industry energy efficiency roll-out program to improve process efficiency
other industries
BArriers
- Insufficient investment capacity of small industries
- Dependence on diesel generators
- High operational costs
- Unreliable grid electricity
potiential actions
- Further the development of industrial zones and special economic zones (SEZ) to attract investment and boost industrial production along with incentives for energy and resource efficiency manufacturing
- Industrial Energy Efficiency Program developed and deployed
- National grid expansion plan prioritizing industries and also incentivizing renewablee captive generation could reduce reliance on diesel generators and lower operational costs, making industries more competitive
- Incentives for adopting clean heat technologies in the manufacturing sector is crucial for reducing carbon emissions and enhancing sustainability
- Developing skilled labor to support modern industries. Investment in education, vocational training, and technical skills will be necessary to build a workforce capable of handling advanced technologies and higher-value industrial production
